It is not the first we are seeing the US pressure Iran and threaten to force to agree to a deal. Just in 2012, the US tried to get Tehran to negotiate a nuclear program, by imposing as much economic pain as possible. Despite the force led to an agreement after 3 years, the story may not repeat itself this time due to the number of facts that have changed since then.

With inflation rising to 50%, oil output has reached a new low and its exports are lacking resulting in a deep recession, being similar to the economy in Iran in 2012. Barack Obama administration’s strategy differs from Trump’s, affecting businesses more harshly. The sanctions before allowed businesses to operate as usual. We had a lot more orders, a lot more demand and in terms of transferring money and receiving payments, we had no problems,’ said Nazanine Roshan, owner of a Tehran marketing company. Now the sanctions disallow firms to take any international orders or to transfer funds abroad.
In the new agreement, the US added 12 additional demands including the removal of Iran’s missile program and withdrawal of its troops in Iraq and Syria. It also asks for ending support for the militias in Lebanon and Yemen.

Iran is now attempting at rebuilding leverage, that was previously traded off as part of the nuclear deal. It will soon go over the stockpile limits set by the agreement. Until leverage is made, Iran is not likely to agree to any talks. Furthermore, there no person is able to act as a moderator, as in 2013. By adding Khamenei and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to the sanctions list, it is unclear to point out to a person for such a role. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani stated that it was clear that the Americans were “lying’’ about their will to speak. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman also confirmed a ‘permanent closure of the path of diplomacy.’ 

Professor of Middle East modern history at St. Andrews University in Scotland, Ali Ansari said that ‘The big problem here is that the Americans don’t really seem to have a clear strategy, they don’t seem to be thinking about how you get the Iranians from A to B.’ The public mood and political environment in Iran is now different to how it was back in 2012 – making it less likely for a successful agreement. With Iran’s President being more open to engage with other countries, the administration in Washington may have to rethink their strategy. 
 

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